Home appliance performance forecast inventory: under the cost of raw materials and shipping, which companies really increase revenue?

Raw materials and shipping logistics costs weigh heavily on the home appliance industry. Recently, more than a dozen listed companies in the home appliance industry have successively released their 2021 performance forecasts. The color TV industry is affected by the increase in the price of LCD panels and the increase in the market volume. Konka Group and others are moving forward, but the "panel duo" BOE and TCL Technology have achieved new highs. Small kitchen appliances fell from "excellent students" to "poor students", and Astara suffered losses; the refrigerator and washing machine industries performed smoothly, and cleaning appliances such as Ecovacs were still gratifying.

Guo Meide, president of Aowei Cloud, believes that 2021 is the most uncertain year in a decade. Now the home appliance industry has entered a new cycle, the new cycle + uncertain factors are superimposed, the prediction of the future is more confused, there is no deterministic growth curve but a deterministic complex environment, the two will coexist for a long time.

Color TV industry supply and demand dislocation

In 2021, the color TV industry will continue to increase in volume and volume. According to data from Aowei Cloud, the retail volume of the color TV market has reached the lowest level in 12 years, falling below the 40 million mark to 38.35 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; the retail sales volume reached 128.9 billion. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. Judging from the performance forecasts of Konka Group and Sichuan Changhong, there is a lot of pressure on profitability.

Konka Group's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 will be 790 million to 990 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.40%-107.27%. However, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is RMB 4 billion to RMB 4.4 billion, mainly due to government subsidy income and gains from the transfer of company equity. Konka Group explained that due to factors such as increasingly fierce market competition, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, and weak domestic consumption, the company's new consumer electronics business incurred a certain amount of loss.

Sichuan Changhong's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 is expected to be 270 million to 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 495.16% to 649.45%. Sichuan Changhong mentioned that the company's main domestic color TV business promotes large-scale transformation, increases the proportion of high-value products, and optimizes product structure; overseas color TV business vigorously promotes product upgrades and continues to improve the layout of mid-to-high-end series products.

In 2021, the supply and demand of the color TV industry will be dislocated, and the price of TV panels will rise under the shortage of supply. In the first half of 2021, the price of panels will rise all the way to a high level. Annual panel costs remain high. It has also made upstream panel companies such as BOE and TCL Technology a lot of money.

In 2021, BOE's operating income will be 215 billion yuan to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%-62%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 25.7 billion yuan to 26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 410%-416%. BOE explained that the semiconductor display industry continued the longest economic cycle in history in the first half of 2021, and the company's operating performance increased significantly year-on-year.

TCL Technology's operating income in 2021 is 161.6 billion yuan to 165 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111%-115%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 10 billion yuan to 10.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%-135%. TCL Technology explained that the operating income of the semiconductor display business increased by more than 80% year-on-year, and the net profit increased by more than 330% year-on-year. Among them, the operating income of the large-size business increased by more than 90% year-on-year, and the net profit increased by more than 300% year-on-year. The high-end business strategy of TV and commercial display products accelerates the optimization of product and customer structure, and gradually promotes the balance and stability of large-size business profits.

Under the pressure of cost and operation, the profitability of Konka Group and Sichuan Changhong is limited, and it is not as good as the projection display new player XGIMI Technology. Its net profit attributable to owners of the parent company in 2021 is 484 million yuan, an increase of 80.07% year-on-year. XGIMI mentioned that the company's product market will perform well in 2021, and sales will continue to grow, driving revenue growth; changes in the company's pricing strategy and product structure, as well as the company's self-developed optical machines continue to import to drive gross profit margins.

Small kitchen appliances self-digest cost pressure

Small kitchen appliances will be overdrafted in 2020. The total data of the omni-channel push of Aowei Cloud in 2021 shows that small kitchen appliances (rice cooker, induction cooker, electric pressure cooker, soy milk maker, wall breaker, blender, juicer, electric kettle, frying pan) The retail sales of 12 categories, including roasting machines, health pots, electric steaming pots, and desktop single-function ovens, totaled 51.4 billion yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year; retail sales were 237.44 million units, down 13.5% year-on-year.

ASD’s losses are among the top, and its revenue in 2021 is expected to be 3.327 billion yuan – 3.761 billion yuan, compared with 2.893 billion yuan in the same period last year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 56.47 million yuan – 77.01 million yuan, and the profit in the same period last year was 103 million yuan. Regarding the lower-than-expected profitability in 2021, Astar explained that there is no land purchase and storage compensation in this year; affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices, the company's cost pressure has increased, and the gross profit margin of products has declined; the increase in export revenue has led to accounts receivable from export customers at the end of the period Scale and corresponding asset impairment losses increased.

Supor expects revenue of 21.585 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 16.07%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 1.877 billion yuan to 2.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.67% to 9.03%. Supor explained that the year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was lower than the increase in operating income, mainly due to the increase in international and domestic raw material prices. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the current period also increased slightly compared with 2019, and the company's operations gradually returned to normal levels.

Beiding's total operating income in 2021 is 847 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.87%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 108 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.86%. Beiding explained that the self-owned brand business has grown steadily, and the business proportion has continued to increase to 74.65%. Affected by the recovery of the international trade environment, the revenue of OEM/ODM business increased steadily. The rising prices of some raw materials and rising shipping costs have pushed up the company's operating costs in stages.

Rising raw material prices and rising sea freight have seriously affected the profit of the export business of the home appliance industry. According to the analysis of Aowei Cloud, the increase in raw material prices in 2021 will have a certain impact on all walks of life, including the small kitchen appliance industry. However, from the data level, the overall average price of small household appliances does not increase much whether online or offline, which is relatively conservative. The core reason comes from the weak market demand of each category itself, brands dare not raise prices significantly, followed by the "game" between leading brands, all of which have a certain impact on the increase in the average price of small household appliances.

However, the integrated stove is the hottest track for kitchen appliances in 2021. Martian's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 is 370 million to 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.45%-56.25%. Martian said that the company adheres to the main business of kitchen appliances such as integrated stoves, dishwashers, integrated sinks, and cabinets, implements a channel diversification strategy, vigorously promotes the laying of distribution stores nationwide, and actively expands KA channels and engineering channels. , self-assembly channels, sinking channels and other emerging channels.

Cleaning appliances are still growing, refrigerators and washing machines linger

Looking at the refrigerator market, from the perspective of the development pace of the market throughout the year, the ice washing market has shown a significant and stable development state. The total data from all channels of Aowei Cloud shows that in 2021, the retail volume of the refrigerator market will be 31.88 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. The amount was 97.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The omni-channel retail sales of the washing machine market in 2021 will be 76.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and the retail volume will be 37.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%.

Changhong Meiling has turned losses into profits, and in 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 45 million yuan – 58 million yuan. Changhong Meiling introduced that during the reporting period, the domestic market demand for the company's main businesses such as refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines continued to improve, while the domestic sales market was flat due to the impact of the epidemic in the same period last year.

In 2021, Omar Electric's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 62 million yuan to 93 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 90.58%-93.72%. Omar Electric explained that the performance of the refrigerator segment has grown well, and both operating income and net profit have achieved steady growth. However, due to the company's provision for expected impairment losses on some receivables from the financial technology business segment, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is negative value.

Whirlpool China is still in the adjustment period, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 is expected to be a loss of 530 million to 630 million yuan. Whirlpool China explained that in 2021, the overall flat market in the home appliance industry and weak retail demand will lead to a decline in domestic sales. Coupled with the impact of external macro adverse factors, difficulties such as rising raw material prices, exchange rate changes, and rising logistics costs such as shipping will result in a decline in the company's gross profit margin. Although the company's export revenue has achieved a certain increase, it is not enough to offset the decrease in profit caused by the decline in domestic sales revenue and the decline in gross profit margin.

Clean appliances still have growth momentum. In 2021, the clean electrical appliance industry will continue its high growth momentum. According to the total data from Aowei Cloud, the omni-channel retail sales of clean electrical appliances in 2021 will be 30.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, and the retail volume will be 29.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Category differentiation, scrubbers and self-cleaning sweeping robots have become dual growth engines for cleaning appliances. The advantages of online channels continued to expand, and the popularity of emerging channels increased.

Ecovacs expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 will reach 2 billion to 2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211.9% to 219.7%. According to Ecovacs, the company will continue to deepen the two-wheel drive strategy of Ecovacs and Timco in 2021, and launch a variety of home service robots and high-end smart life electrical products to promote the rapid growth of the business income of the two brands.

Lake Electric expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 will be 500 million to 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.45%-82.94%. Lake Electric explained that the company has achieved comprehensive growth in the three major businesses of its own brand, ODM and core components, and its operating income is expected to increase by 25% to 30% year-on-year. However, due to factors such as the global macro economy, the company's ODM export business has experienced severe challenges such as the cost of raw materials, the sharp rise in shipping costs and the appreciation of the RMB.